AP Benson's modelling group was founded in 2001 and has, since its formation, worked with a range of clients in a variety of sectors including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, FMCG, automotive manufacturing and defence. In order to enhance its modelling capabilities, in 2001 AP Benson also acquired the rights to the modelling environment Modelmaker and Modelmanager. A leader in the fields of environmental science, economics, ecology and mathematics modelling, the Modelkinetix brand name has a pedigree dating back some 20 years. Current clients include Bayer Crop Protection, the US Food and Drugs Administration Agency and the Strategic Rail Authority.
In addition we use a variety of other modelling tools and applications (for example iThink, Stella and Powersim for dynamical modelling) to address client specific problems. In some cases clients benefit from a bottom up approach to model development that focuses on establishing key business factors that drive the way that a firm does business.
A model creates a common understanding of the way in which a particular real life business situation operates allowing managers to develop a range of scenarios to test the impact of making management decisions. AP Benson models include essentially static financial outcomes such as forecasts of future trading performance , market entry outcomes, returns on capital investment using DCF, ROI techniques. However much of the modelling carried out by the firm focuses on business systems or strategic alternatives which are essentially dynamic in nature and therefore require an approach that allows the temporal element of the system to be identified. This type of systems dynamic modelling uses specialist tools and techniques and is extremely valuable in describing a variety of situations from, say, queuing systems to the effect of a particular pricing policy on solvency. It can also address the impact on market prices as a consequence of new entrants, price competition, new product introductions etc.
AP Benson's Expertise in Modelling
Effective models that are reliable, credible and useful depend on a range of skills and experience on the part of the modeller. AP Benson's specialist expertise in the following fields supports the development of valuable outputs:
- Economic variables - inflationary issues (such as steel price changes, fluctuations and price sensitivity in the used polymers market), salary and wage price changes, effects of limitations on credit availability and commodity demand/supply price changes
- Environmental factors - environmental pollution risks, remediation costs, rates of change in global warming, persistence of chemicals in the environment etc
- Uncertainty - the use of probability to support decision making through the construction of decision trees. A key skill is the accurate assessment of probability in any given situation to ensure that the output is meaningful given all the circumstances
- Process improvement modelling - AP Benson's work in business process consultancy requires the construction of often complex models to describe systems and processes that can then be altered through the introduction of say new processes
- Investment Returns - ROI, discounted cash flow type analyses
- Business dynamics analysis - as described above, the use of a dynamical approach is often very important to arrive at a meaningful and useful outcome
- Strategic modelling - our work involves modelling strategic alternatives and sometimes using techniques within game theory to address problems
- Corporate financial insolvency assessment and scenario planning - both dynamic and static modelling can be used to establish the current financial position and to use this as a basis for testing the impact of alternative management decisions